Career rates for the riders expected on the gate — win and podium share, average finish, and a 3σ finishing band — straight from the same dataset the app reads, alongside our editorial calls.
Auto-generated from the same dataset the app reads. These are each rider's career rates over their recorded starts — the share of races won and podiumed, average finish, and the 3σ band — ranked by win share. They are history, not calibrated odds for one round, so they do not sum to 100% across the field. Updates the moment new results post. Injured, wildcard and withdrawn riders excluded.
Pro Motocross is settled. What follows is a different championship with different rules, and the first thing to understand about it is that almost nothing carries over.
Seeding comes from combined Supercross and Pro Motocross points, and then those points are thrown away. The top 20 in a class auto-qualify and restart on the seeding scale, 25 for the top seed down to 2 for the twentieth; seeds 21 to 30 race a Wild Card for the last two spots and start on zero. Payouts escalate: standard at Playoff 1, double at Playoff 2, triple at the Final, which means the last round is worth 75 for a win and the championship is rarely settled before it.
Lawrence withdrew from all three playoff rounds on September 2 and has ankle surgery on the 9th. He had earned the fourth seed and 18 points. Seeds are not redrawn when a rider withdraws, so the seat stays empty rather than promoting everyone below it — the riders behind him keep the points they earned and simply have one fewer rider to pass. Every pick on this page is made without him, and the model forecast above drops him automatically. He had won all three SMX titles contested so far.
Jett Lawrence finished two points off the outdoor title and was seeded fourth before he withdrew. Ken Roczen won the Supercross championship and is seeded tenth. Neither result reflects how fast either rider is; both reflect that the seeding rewards contesting both series over winning one. If you want a single number for it: Roczen's 450SX championship is worth 12 seeding points, and Cooper Webb's third place in that same championship, plus a mid-pack outdoor season, is worth 20.
Seeded eighth on 396 combined. He did not race between Fox Raceway and Spring Creek and still finished the outdoor season with 121 points and a fifth at Ironman, his best ride since returning. He is the one rider in the top ten whose seeding is built on a partial season rather than a full one, which usually means the number understates him.
75 points for winning the last round, against 25 for winning the first. A rider can lose Playoff 1 badly and still take the championship, and the seeding advantage that looks decisive on paper, three points between the top two 450 seeds, is worth about one position in one moto by the time the Final multiplier applies. Expect the standings after Playoff 1 to mislead.
The obvious answer is Hunter Lawrence, who no longer has to beat the rider who has won every playoff series ever run. The less obvious answer is Prado and Webb, seeded second and third, who spend three rounds racing for positions rather than for whatever was left after the brothers had finished. A format that resets everyone to within 13 points was already close. It just lost the one rider who has never failed to win it.
250SX East in the spring, 250MX in the summer, and now the top seed in the playoffs. No rider on either sheet has a stronger claim to 2026. The reset takes his 38-point outdoor cushion and reduces it to three over Kitchen, which is the format doing what it is designed to do: making the season we just watched count for very little.
Two spots from seeds 21 to 30, and the qualifiers start on zero, which in a three-round series with escalating points is close to unrecoverable. In the 450 class Mitchell Harrison sits 21st on 190 combined, three points outside the cut. In the 250 class Casey Cochran is 21st on 148. Both would be racing for a start rather than a title.
Haiden Deegan won 250SX West and then rode 450 outdoors. Under the cross-class rule he is seeded in the class he finished the outdoor season in, and only the points earned in that class travel with him, so a championship he won this year contributes nothing to his seeding. He starts on 15 where a rider with a mediocre 450SX season and a mediocre 450MX season could start higher.
The running record of our editorial calls. New scorecards get added here, oldest at the bottom.
Holeshot pick, Jorge Prado: not graded. We could not find a holeshot record for either Budds Creek 450 moto in the published results, and we are not going to score a pick we cannot check. Sleeper, Mark Fineis: miss. The test we set was whether he would improve on his Round 9 finish; he went from 14th at Unadilla to 22nd at Budds Creek on 19-36 scores. Key Question 1, "does Hunter Lawrence respond?": yes, emphatically. He won both motos, retook the points lead by one, and was champion by two a week later.
There is no Round 9 scorecard because no Round 9 preview was published. This page had been carrying the archived Round 2 (Hangtown) editorial since June 6, seven rounds during which the Saturday update did not run to completion. Grading ourselves against predictions we never made would be worse than admitting the gap, so: no picks, no hit rate, no credit.
These are editorial calls, not statistical forecasts. Inputs are the
completed 2026 Supercross and Pro Motocross seasons (from
promotocross.com and supercrosslive.com, reconciled against the official
points tables) and the SMX seeding rules in data/series.js.
The live model at the top of this page is the statistical view and is
generated separately; where the two disagree, they disagree in public.
Every prediction on this page gets graded in the scorecard section above after the round runs: how many of the predicted top five actually finished top five, whether the holeshot pick hit, and whether the sleeper improved on their previous round.